The New U.S. Sanctions on Iran Rgeime, JCPOA and Prospects

NCRI - The new US sanctions have sparked a wave of fear and concerns within the regime.

The agents and media of both factions of the Iranian regime say and write about the terrible consequences of adopting these sanctions.

Javan newspaper, affiliated with the Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC), described new sanctions as "military JCPOA" by the United States following the nuclear deal, and wrote that the sanctions were in fact sanctions aimed at targeting defensive power, missile power and military power (of the regime) through widespread and unprecedented sanctions. The designers of the plan seek to provide the grounds for a military JCPOA with the aim of limiting the regime’s defense power through massive sanctions.

The IRGC’s newspaper said: The Americans are now pushing for replacing the defense power (of the regime) instead of the nuclear program and starting a series of sanctions and pressures on the regime.

The new U.S. sanctions and the possible escape of the Iranian regime from it

In response to these sanctions, the question arises whether the regime, which has a long history of excellence in circumventing the sanctions, can beat the sanctions as before and go through the wave?

The answer to this question is negative; first, the regime was not able to completely circumvent the previous sanctions, otherwise it would not have negotiated on the table and would not have abandoned its most important protective shield, i.e. nuclear.

Secondly, the sanctions of this stage are much more severe than the previous sanctions. In the regime itself, they call the US new sanctions with terms such as “mother of sanctions" or "black hole of sanctions" embodying and ending everything, especially as these sanctions coincide with the discussion of changing US policy towards the Iranian regime.

So although the policy has not yet been fully elaborated, all the indications are that the new US sanctions this time are very different from the previous ones, which were based on the heels of appeasement. At that time, although there were repeated talks of various options being on the table, but the regime's authorities were confident, but now the words and stances have other meanings; what has been said and heard is only the tip of the iceberg of the deadly horror of the regime; the horror that keeps both factions of the regime agitated and each of the two bands in their own way is looking for a way to escape from the deadlock.

The new US sanctions and the reaction of the president of the Iranian regime

The Iranian regime’s President Hassan Rouhani said at a cabinet meeting on July 19, 2017: "Surely, if Americans want to impose sanctions under any pretext and excuse against us, the great nation of Iran will respond appropriately to them, and in response to the congressional proceedings, the Islamic Consultative Assembly (Iranian Majlis) also will have reciprocal bills".

It is interesting to note that while Rouhani leaves the response to the "nation" and "parliament", Khamenei's ruling Kayhan newspaper returns the ball to Rouhani, and writes: "What's important is that, like the government of reforms that had sealed the enrichment and had to reopen it itself, the current respectable government should also open the knot of JCPOA and not leave it to the parliament and the people. " (Kayhan July 24, 2017)

The new US sanctions and the reaction of the Iranian regime’s parliament

Although the regime's TV (July 24) announced that President Rouhani, Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif, Deputy Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi and a member of the nuclear negotiating team, consider the new US sanctions as a violation of the spirit and the text of JCPOA and are considering reciprocal measures, the rival faction has questioned the genuineness of these positions, asking: "Is there any measure in the work?" (Mehdi Mohammadi, Khamenei’s faction – July 24, 2017)

Regarding these conditions, the parliament of the Iranian regime has drafted a plan to be followed by parliamentarians who are returning from the summer recess, a plan that has already been condemned and mocked by members of the parliament as "largely vocal and non-influential." (Emtedad news government site – July 23, 2017)

New US sanctions, regime at the crossroad

Within the Iranian regime, two ways to face new situations are being discussed:

One of the ways promoted by Rouhani, Zarif and their faction is the continuation of JCPOA, namely, JCPOA 2, 3 and 4, abandoning missiles and retreat from countries in the region, such as Syria, Iraq, and Yemen, and the issue of human rights.

Another is the way that Khamenei's faction, or more precisely, gangs and bands from the lower levels of Khamenei's faction, discuss, which is standing against US threats and countering reciprocally. One of these elements suggested in the regime television, that as the United States "makes us annoyed by new sanctions and its misbehavior about JCPOA," we also should reciprocate by creating "a list of areas and issues that cause Americans to be disturbed".

A Rouhani faction newspaper warns with great fear about this option: "Will Iran respond to these harshings, sanctions and adventures in Yemen, Syria, Iraq, or even the Persian Gulf? If so, Tehran - Washington move expeditiously toward a dangerous accident" (Jahan Sanat newspaper, July 24, 2017)